From USA Today:
2020 Democratic Convention: Trump Showed Conflict, Chaos Can Produce Great TV, and a Winner
One positive thing about Trump’s run for the presidency is it revealed that a lot of the conventional wisdom about American politics isn’t true. If you had asked 20 pundits whether someone could win an American nomination fight after insulting a decorated prisoner-of-war hero, all 20 would have said hell no. Or the probability of the Republicans nominating a political novice who used to be for legal abortion and strong gun control?
—Jeremy Mayer
From The Hill:
Impeached, With a Solid Base and No Apologies—Trump Becomes the Only issue of 2020
Most presidents aim to expand their base. Not Trump. He governs by catering exclusively to his base. He sees the world as “us” versus “them.” He denounces his critics as traitors, implying that their criticism of him amounts to disloyalty to the country. He calls the Democrats running for president “a group of socialists or communists.”
Trump’s base is about one-third of the electorate. They are the 34 percent of voters who, in the mid-December Quinnipiac poll, said they “strongly approve” of the way Trump is handling his job as president. That’s enough to give him control of the Republican Party. But it may not be enough to win re-election.
—Bill Schneider
From the Atlantic Council:
Russia Reacts to the Killing of Soleimani
Indeed, how to respond to the US killing of Soleimani poses a serious challenge to Moscow. On the one hand, it raises the opportunity to solidify its relationship with Tehran. On the other hand, Moscow does not really want to see (much less get involved in) a major conflict between the US and Iran which—despite however much its ends up hurting the US—raises the possibility of gravely weakening the Iranian regime and reducing its ability to support the Assad regime in Syria (which Moscow does not want to have to undertake on its own). Further, Moscow does not want to damage the good relations it has built up with Washington’s anti-Iranian allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE by increasing Russian military support for their arch enemy, Iran. This would threaten Putin’s two decade-long effort to cultivate good relations with them.
—Mark Katz
From Power Magazine:
Why America Must Let Go of Coal and Avoid Renewable Subsidies
Any energy resource that has to be subsidized routinely and extensively undermines the market forces that led to the substitution of gas for coal in electrical power generation. In addition to increasing costs to ratepayers, the taxpayer-funded special treatment of coal and renewables only hinders research and development, and diverts capital toward less-competitive, and even less environmentally friendly, energy sources.
Public officials should be informed about America’s energy future, promoting policies that stimulate competition and reduce consumer costs based on a hybrid electric power system of gas, existing nuclear, and emerging renewable (wind and solar) systems. Let the market determine the mix.
—Richard D. Kauzlarich
From Education Dive:
The Downside of Secret Searches for College Presidents
Of course, knowing that your president is in the job market can be destabilizing. However, if we accept the American Council on Education's data that the terms of university presidents are getting shorter (which our own research supports, albeit with a slightly higher average of 7.8 years), what this really suggests is that governing boards should begin to take succession planning much more seriously given that turnover is not only more rapid than ever before but is inevitable. They should begin drawing up the plan on day one.
—Judith Wilde and Jim Finkelstein
From The Hill:
The Democrats’ Strategy Conundrum: A ‘Movement’ or a Coalition?
What’s the difference? A coalition brings together voters with diverse interests who agree on one thing: President Donald Trump has to go. There’s just one test: “If you support the party’s candidate — for whatever reason — you're one of us. No further questions.” Supporters of a movement are expected to agree on everything. For the conservative movement, that means the entire conservative agenda, from taxes to abortion to immigration to climate change. Disagree on anything, and you can be declared a heretic and expelled from the movement.
—Bill Schneider
From Responsible Statecraft:
Bombs Aren’t Solving Our Terrorism Problems, We Must Turn to Diplomacy and Development
U.S. commanders have acknowledged publicly the limits to military power in addressing the profound challenge of extremism, and some have been honest enough to recognize that the dominance of military power in the U.S. approach creates a counterproductive dynamic, as killings and property destruction by U.S. forces against suspects risks radicalizing even more people, and helping terrorist groups recruit new cadres. The military will be haunted by the outcome of this longest war in U.S. history, seeking lessons for military doctrine and training.
—Ellen Laipson
From Foreign Policy Research Institute:
Eastern Promises: Our German Problem
Unfortunately however, the following scenario is possible. In the coming years, the focus of German foreign relations may very well shift toward the East. This wouldn’t be due to the cold, deliberate, geopolitical savvy of any new Otto von Bismarck. Rather, it would be due to increased economic dependence on the People’s Republic of China, and continuing energy dependence on Russia, with unsettling domestic political effects inside the Berlin republic along with inevitable strategic implications. Under this disturbing scenario, Germany would not formally exit NATO. It would still want that reassurance. But in practice, it would drift into a kind of ambiguous, ambivalent posture between Russia, China, and leading Western powers, wringing its hands at being the one large herbivore in an increasingly carnivorous world.
—Colin Dueck
From The Hill:
Where the Bloomberg Candidacy Makes Sense
We could end up with a split decision in the early primaries with different candidates winning Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. A split decision would mean “No Mo” — no Democrat gaining momentum and an unending squabble for delegates. Time to break the glass!
—Bill Schneider
From The Hill:
No Patriotic Poll Bump for Trump, but Soleimani Strike May Still Help Him Politically
President Trump may have expected a jump in his job approval rating, which is what usually happens during a foreign policy crisis. Jimmy Carter’s job approval surged from 33 to 51 percent in the weeks following the seizure of American hostages in Tehran in November 1979. The rally lasted just long enough to help Carter defeat a Democratic primary challenge from Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in 1980.
Trump has not gotten a bounce from the elimination of Gen. Soleimani.
—Bill Schneider